Boomers Are Reserving Senior-Living Suites Years in Advance—and America Still Won’t Have Enough

Boomers Are Reserving Senior-Living Suites Years in Advance—and America Still Won’t Have Enough

If you’re edging toward 80 and dreaming of an easy glide into assisted living, join the queue—literally. Across the United States, future residents are writing five-figure checks for apartments that haven’t even been framed yet, terrified they’ll miss out when they finally need daily help.

“We already see older adults moving at a rapid clip,” Lisa McCracken, research chief at the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC), told me. “The wave of baby boomers and a growing number of ‘solo agers’ means demand is only going up. Supply? Not so much.”

Here’s the math:

• 564,000 new units are required by 2030 to keep pace with demand.

• At today’s building tempo, only 191,000 are on track to be delivered.

• Result: a 373,000-unit shortfall—and the clock is ticking.

The crunch is already visible. NIC MAP data show first-quarter 2025 occupancy hit a record 620,953 units. Yet construction starts in the 31 metro areas NIC tracks plunged to 1,076—the lightest activity since the dark days of 2009. Blame it on pandemic-era rate hikes, tariff-inflated material costs, and a tight labor market that builders say could tighten further if mass deportations thin construction crews.

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“We can’t build fast enough,” says Aegis Living founder and CEO Dwayne Clark, who runs 38 assisted-living communities and has three more on the drawing board. “People are already plunking down deposits. In two or three years, there won’t be any spots left.”

Aegis, which serves roughly 3,000 residents and books about $400 million a year (all private-pay—no insurance), is hardly alone in sounding the alarm.

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Why expansions are the new ground-up

Arick Morton, who heads NIC MAP, calls full-scale greenfield development “the only way to get explosive inventory,” but concedes the economics don’t pencil right now. The stop-gap: tack extra wings onto existing campuses. “It’s a pressure-relief valve,” he says, cheaper per square foot and faster to open.

Big REITs are buying, not building

Fragmentation also drives scarcity. Operators are scooping up existing centers to gain scale instead of pouring concrete. Welltower Inc. (NYSE: WELL)—the nation’s largest senior-housing owner—has spent $20 billion on acquisitions since late 2020, paying roughly 30 percent below replacement cost. In its 2025 outlook, the REIT said construction-loan rates are now double their pre-COVID level; buying beats building.

Pockets of breathing room—if you’re willing to move

Every one of NIC MAP’s 31 primary markets sits above 80 percent occupancy. Four have cracked 90 percent for the first time since 2019—Boston tops the list at 90.7 percent, trailed by Baltimore (90.6 percent) and Cincinnati (90.2 percent). The softest markets? Miami and Houston (both 84.7 percent) and Atlanta (83.9 percent). Translation: if you can’t snag a suite in your hometown, be prepared to relocate.

The human cost of waiting

Without a surge in supply, many older adults will age at home by default—often leaning on adult children or friends who never signed up for the night shift. “That strains caregivers and ultimately harms their health, too,” Clark warns.

So if you have your eye on a gleaming new senior complex, you might want to toss your hat—and maybe your deposit—into the ring now. Because by the time you turn 84, the average move-in age, the only thing harder than finding a vacant unit could be building one.

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